Falling prices, rising listings and rate-cut hopes draw cautious Canadian buyers back in 2026
After a bruising stretch for Canada’s housing market, a growing group of buyers is quietly getting ready to step off the sidelines in 2026, according to new projections from RE/MAX Canada.
Fresh data from the network’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook points to a market that is no longer stuck in reverse and the firm expects national home sales to rise by 3..4% next year, even as prices continue to adjust.
Average values fell in many regions through 2025, and that softening is expected to carry into 2026, with a further decline in prices of 3.7% anticipated.
That reset is beginning to embolden would-be purchasers and a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada finds that 10% of poll participants plan to buy a home in the next 12 months, half of them first-time buyers. Another one quarter believe their local market will become more affordable in 2026, a marked shift after years of intense price escalation.
The survey shows that 23% of respondents would be ready to buy if Bank of Canada interest rates fell further, by another 0.5-1%. The combination of lower borrowing costs and softer price trends is seen as a potential turning point for many households who have been waiting for a clearer entry point.
Overall, 17% of survey respondents say they intend to buy a home at some point, with that near-term intent strongest among younger households aged 18 to 34, often with children at home.
“Amid looming economic clouds, Canadians are maintaining their interest in homeownership,” says Don Kottick, President, REMAX Canada. “The resilience that began to emerge in the fall is anticipated to continue into 2026, with first-time buyers in particular finding creative ways to save and enter the market.”
The road to that resilience has been uneven with home sales down year-over-year between January 1 and October 31, 2025, in 19 of 33 markets tracked by RE/MAX brokers and local boards. But unlike the inventory crunch that defined 2024, this year has brought a meaningful rise in listings with supply up in 75.8% of regions.
That move toward more balanced conditions helped cool prices and gave buyers a little more negotiating power and the buyer pool itself is changing as families, newcomers to Canada and retirees made up a larger share of purchasers in 2025, taking over from first-time buyers, who led the way in many markets the previous year.
“Time will tell how the buyer profile shifts we've seen over the past year will influence overall homebuying decisions. In such a dynamic environment, with evolving buyer needs and changing seller expectations, it's more important than ever for buyers to work with a trusted professional agent who understands their local market and can help find what best suits them and their families,” says Kottick.
READ: Canadian home sales gain again as tighter supply nudges market toward balance
Regionally, Vancouver’s high-end property prices dropped 6.3% year-over-year from 2024 to 2025, as more luxury inventory came to market, while entry-level homes remain fiercely sought-after. Calgary and Edmonton are moving into more balanced territory, with suburban single detached homes driving demand as buyers chase relative affordability and long-term growth.
In Regina and Winnipeg, tight supply continues to support sellers, particularly in the single detached segment where first-time buyers and growing families are hunting for move-in-ready space. Across Ontario, conditions range from stable northern centres to more buyer-friendly pockets in mid-sized cities and parts of the Greater Toronto Area, where increased listings and modest price declines (including a 3.5% year-over-year drop in GTA prices) are creating selective opportunities.
Atlantic Canada is transitioning toward balance, buoyed by steady in-migration, new home construction and projected price gains in the 3-5% range across many markets. Single detached and semi-detached homes remain the go-to choice, while rising rents continue to nudge some renters toward ownership.
RE/MAX’s latest outlook suggests that while 2026 may not be a boom year, it’s shaping up to be the year confidence quietly starts to return.
