Three years into the downturn, one RE/MAX leader sees hope in supply restrictions
It’s been three years of pain, uncertainty, and frustration for condo investors since the market began its downturn in late 2022. According to the latest annual condominium report from RE/MAX, in 2025, resale volumes fell precipitously across most of Canada, with a notable 28.5 per cent decline in Calgary, an almost 12 per cent drop in the GTA, and an 11 per cent drop in Vancouver. Prices only meaningfully appreciated in Edmonton in the last year, while the GTA and Vancouver areas both saw price drops of over five per cent. This is after two prior years of similar or greater declines. With so much of Canada’s condo inventory still owned by investors, many financial advisors are managing clients who regret their decisions and are seeking some glimmer of hope.
Tim Syrianos believes that the market is beginning to hit bottom. The owner of RE/MAX Ultimate Realty Inc., in Toronto explained that the same forces of oversupply of “micro-condos” that few Canadians want to buy to live in has left these units in the domain of investors. Lower rents and higher interest rates in recent years shifted the math for condo investors, resulting in a glut of units and declining prices. Syrianos argues, though, that the cessation of most new condo construction, the gradual absorption of existing units, and shifts in the nature of work in Canada will serve to normalize the condo market over the next two years.
“The gradual halt to construction is going to have the biggest impact. Two years ago, when we were still building, I would say that this is a bleak picture, but now we’ve gone through three years of softening and all the construction has come to a halt, we’re in a different place,” Syrianos says. “We’re working through inventory that was built in 2020 and 2021, that’s about 35,000 transactions coming to market. Once those are done there’s a complete drop off in supply. We’re going to see some steady appreciation from there.”
Syrianos argues that the price drops in many condo markets has opened up a more attractive entry point for new investors and buyers. He argues, too, that while many condo developers pivoted to purpose-built rental in recent years, that supply will take time to come online, offering investors the chance of rents that cover carrying costs. Interest rate cuts have helped, too, and mortgages with something more than the minimum down payment now look more sustainable at today’s rent prices.
While the worst of the condo downturn in major cities was compounded by the rise of remote work, Syrianos also takes the return to office mandates handed down by the big banks and other major employers as a potential boon for this market. As more workers come into downtown cores and work in the office, more conveniently located housing options may become more attractive again.
Syrianos acknowledges that this market cycle may seem excruciatingly slow for some investors. He cites his own experience in the 1990s and highlights how hard these downturn periods can be for property owners. Nevertheless, he believes that market is approaching or is at its bottom and that numbers should begin to change as rate cuts are digested and more investors enter the space at better price points.
That is not to say Syrianos believes price appreciation will be immediate. He sees the remaining supply absorption as a two or three year process that any investor will have to cope with. He argues, though, that as the existing overstock of condos is digested by the market the wider Canadian housing shortage will play a role in re-starting price appreciation for these assets. It’s no longer the kind of environment where investors could rely on appreciation to the point where they might not even need to rent out the unit, but those investors who can stomach being a landlord may be better positioned than they thought.
For advisors working with condo investor clients, Syrianos argues that there is a case to be made for some hope. Even if the cycle is longer than clients might like, there is now a light at the end of this tunnel.
“Because of the lack of construction, the light is there,” Syrianos says. “We’re closer to that absorption level than we are to that downward cycle of oversupply.”
