When one in twenty young borrowers misses a payment, the credit cycle starts to shift
A surge of 1.45 million missed credit payments in Q3 marked a renewed interruption in stabilisation trends, as reported by Equifax Canada’s Q3 Market Pulse Quarterly Consumer Credit Trends and Insights.
The report stated this figure was more than 46,000 higher than in Q2, signalling growing repayment stress ahead of the holiday spending period.
According to the report, younger borrowers drove much of the pressure.
Among consumers aged 26–35, the 90+ day non-mortgage delinquency rate reached 2.45 percent, a 20.51 percent rise year-over-year.
People aged 18–25 recorded a 2.11 percent rate, up 16.58 percent from the previous year, and 1 in 20 Canadians aged 18–35 missed a payment during the quarter.
Urban markets amplified this trend.
Toronto’s non-mortgage delinquency rate rose to 2.27 percent, up 19.58 percent year-over-year, as per the report. Vancouver increased to 1.27 percent, up 18.18 percent, while Ottawa reached 1.55 percent, up 17.61 percent. Edmonton and Halifax also posted double-digit jumps.
Rebecca Oakes, vice-president, Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada, said Q3 showed renewed stress in younger households and among homeowners in major cities.
Oakes added that mortgage payment shock continued to affect repayment behaviour across credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.
As reported by Equifax Canada, total consumer debt climbed to $2.62tn, a 3.4 percent increase year-over-year. Average non-mortgage debt rose to $22,321, up $511 compared to Q3 last year.
Non-mortgage debt growth exceeded 5 percent year-over-year, while inflation-adjusted card spend increased 1.6 percent, led by Nunavut, Quebec, and New Brunswick.
Missed payments remained concentrated among non-mortgage borrowers.
Of the 1.45 million consumers who missed a payment, 84 percent—about 1.21 million—did not hold a mortgage. Among mortgage holders, roughly 1 in 35 missed a payment, a slight rise from 1 in 37 at the end of Q2.
Oakes said younger consumers began reducing card spend last quarter and noted it would be crucial to see if that restraint continued through the holiday period.
In contrast, consumers aged 46+ increased average card spending to $2,342 in Q3, up $48 year-over-year.
The auto sector also appeared in the report, which pointed to synthetic ID fraud as a rising challenge for lenders.
Equifax Canada stated this type of fraud accounted for about one-third of auto loans over $10,000 opened in January 2025 that later missed payments in Q3, contributing to an estimated $450m in annual losses.
