M&A advisors weigh in on macro forces that could shape the retirement fortunes of advisors’ entrepreneur clients
Macro overhangs held back M&A activity on both sides of the US-Canada border through the first half of 2025, but as more clarity emerged around tariffs, US policy, and economic fortunes buyers have stepped up their interest. The trend has been well documented at the upper echelons of the US economy, with about $1 trillion in deal flow over the summer alone. For Canadian business owners, those macro forces could present an opportunity.
Daniel Scaini and Zach Schenker are the managing partners of The Fairing Group, a boutique M&A advisory firm that specializes in serving small and medium enterprise (SME) owners. They outlined how macro forces are impacting the market for SMEs in Canada, with almost half of all Canadian M&A activity involving a US stakeholder. They explained how they’re finding buyers for these entrepreneurs, and why financial advisors with SME owner clients should pay attention to the shifting market for their clients’ most valuable asset.
“The first half of the year was defined by tariff-related uncertainty. However, with the passing of time, both financial and strategic buyers have learned to operate within the new environment,” says Scaini. “As a result, we’re seeing growing confidence in the market, reflected in the increased sell-side and buy-side conversations we are having. I wouldn’t call it a boom, but there is a clear uptick emerging in Canada.”
Schenker adds that while a shift away from antitrust regulation in the US has buoyed M&A confidence there, the Canadian dynamics have been far more impacted by tariffs. As more clarity has emerged about the nature of those tariffs and trade arrangements, buyers have gained greater confidence around the purchase of Canadian enterprises. That said, sectors still more in the crosshairs of US tariffs like the auto industry may be selling at some compressed valuations. While he notes that much of the activity in Canada has focused on larger enterprises, a growing number of SME transactions are beginning to take place.
Schenker and Scaini lay out three broad categories of SME buyer in Canada now: strategic buyers, private equity funds, and family offices. Strategic buyers, they explain, could be on either side of the border. These purchasers typically want to buy a Canadian SME to vertically integrate, horizontally integrate, or access a new geography. Private equity funds, they explain, may be specializing in a specific market or seeking to add to their existing exposure to a particular industry. Family offices are operating at a similar level to those other two buying segments, often using search funds to identify and capture business opportunities. Schenker notes, though, that these family offices operate with a different goal in mind.
“Family offices exist to protect generational wealth, and historically they’ve done that through real estate,” says Schenker. “That’s shifted significantly given today’s interest rate environment and the high cost of building in Canada. We’re now having more conversations with family offices that are looking to buy operating businesses or to back searchers who will acquire them. It’s an exciting development in Canada’s lower mid-market ecosystem, with prominent family offices unlocking meaningful capital to pursue these opportunities.”
While shifts in the macro environment have increased appetites from all three of these buying cohorts, Schenker and Scaini note that those same macro forces could put this theme at risk once again. A new flare up in trade tensions or even a meaningful end to the AI theme that has buoyed public equity markets could see a shift in risk appetites for SME buyers. At the same time, a continued shift towards lower interest rates in the US could unlock more capital for SME purchases.
In an environment where macro-driven opportunity can shift dramatically, Schenker and Scaini emphasize the importance of preparation. They explain that SME owners with the right expectations and documentation can sail through the 4-8 month process of selling their enterprise. They explain how their own process begins by ensuring the SME’s financials are as clean and well documented as possible so they can present a normalized expected EBIDTA to possible buyers. From there they will create competitive tension through a structured process designed to drive interest from all three identified buying segments. They bring in experts in M&A law and accounting who can help ensure the process moves as smoothly as possible. As financial advisors sit down with older SME owner clients to talk about retirement, Schenker and Scaini stress the importance of connecting that client with an M&A advisor when they talk about wanting to sell their business.
“Preparation is key. Whether driven by retirement or other factors, selling a business isn’t as simple as flipping a switch,” Scaini says. “You can decide to sell spontaneously, but doing so comes with real disadvantages, like rushed timelines, incomplete information, and a weaker negotiating position. By preparing early, including the assembly of the right deal team, including M&A advisors, legal counsel, tax specialists, and accountants with transaction experience, these pitfalls are avoided. A business is often an owner’s identity and legacy. The building of a seller’s trust with these vendors takes time, so advisors can help by forming these relationships early to improve outcomes.”
