Grocery bills set to surge by almost $1000 in 2026 according to new report
Canada’s latest food price outlook will add further pressure on household budgets as inflation on groceries remains above the core rate.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 reveals that the typical four person household could pay as much as $994.63 more on groceries in the coming year, which would be a 4-6% rise in overall food costs, with the average food spend climbing to $17,571.79 in 2026. Prices are now 27% higher than five years ago.
While increases are expected across the board, certain regions, including Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec, are forecast to see above-average spikes in food prices.
For meat, the outlook is particularly worrying as the report notes that meat prices soared in 2025 at a rate of 5-7%, with beef prices alone jumping a staggering 19% in the first quarter, leaving 2026 to follow suit. As explained by report authors, drought related reductions in cattle herds have triggered the most acute supply squeeze in decades. As consumers switch from beef, this will add pressure to chicken prices.
Increasingly severe and unpredictable weather events around the globe will continue to disrupt agricultural production, creating supply challenges.
Longer term economic and environmental headwinds compound the challenge with a weaker outlook for GDP growth, tightened labour supply due to changes in seasonal worker policy, and climate driven crop disruptions all threaten to feed through to grocery store shelves.
However, not everything is bleak. The report suggests that easing inflation (with overall rates dropping toward 2%) and recent tariff rollbacks on food imports may help cushion the blow. New regulations such as mandatory front-of-pack food labelling and dairy-product vitamin-D fortification might also steer markets toward healthier, more transparent choices.
But for many Canadian families already stretching their budgets, the forecast is a reminder that food affordability remains a major pressure point.
The food report is an annual publication produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, Saint Mary's University, University of Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton University, the University of Guelph, Université Laval, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan.
